![]() Even before the war, NATO’s European members were spending three to four times as much on defense each year than Russia. NATO’s European members have always had far greater latent power potential than the threat to their east: Together, they have nearly four times Russia’s population and more than 10 times its GDP. The bottom line is that Europe can handle a future Russian threat on its own. And every Russian soldier deployed to police a rebellious Ukraine cannot be used to attack anyone else. Propping up a puppet regime in Kyiv would force Russia to keep a lot of unhappy soldiers on Ukrainian soil, facing the same stubborn insurgency that occupying armies typically encounter. Neither Europe nor the United States will return to business as usual with Russia as long as Putin remains in power, and the sanctions now in place will hamstring the battered Russian economy for years to come. Moreover, even if Russia’s brutal tactics and superior numbers eventually force Ukraine to capitulate, Moscow’s power will continue to decline. No matter what he may hope, it is now obvious that Russia is simply not strong enough to restore its former empire-and will be even less so as Europe rearms. Despite months of planning and preparation, the Russian invasion of far weaker Ukraine has been an embarrassing debacle for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The war has also exposed Russia’s persistent military deficiencies. Even pacifist, postmodern Germany appears to have gotten the memo. Governments from London to Helsinki have responded vigorously, belying predictions that “strategic cacophony” within Europe would prevent the continent from responding effectively to a common threat. Russia’s actions are a brutal reminder that hard power is still vitally important and that Europe’s self-ascribed role as a “ civilian power” is not enough. The war has been a wake-up call for Europeans who believed that large-scale war on their continent had been made impossible by norms against conquest, international institutions, economic interdependence, and U.S. Properly understood, the war in Ukraine shows that Europe taking greater responsibility for its security is not only desirable but feasible. Looking ahead, the Biden administration should not allow the shocking events in Europe to divert it from the larger task of rebuilding strength at home and balancing Chinese power abroad. China’s rise is the greatest long-term challenge to the United States’ ability to maintain these favorable configurations of power, and Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine does not alter that fact. grand strategy has focused on helping to maintain favorable balances of power in Europe, East Asia, and to a lesser extent the Persian Gulf. DANIEL MIHAILESCU/AFP via Getty Imagesįor more than a century, U.S. grand strategy, which until one month ago seemed almost entirely focused on China and the Indo-Pacific? We asked seven leading foreign-policy thinkers to weigh in.- Stefan Theil, deputy editorįrench Defense Minister Florence Parly (center left) and Romanian Defense Minister Vasile Dancu walk in front of French army personnel as they arrive at the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base in Romania on March 6. What’s more, the West’s response-including an unprecedented economic war-has suddenly given foreign-policy strategists a bigger toolkit to draw from as they plan for future challenges. ![]() When the revised version of Washington’s most important security document is released, it will have to reflect new realities: Russia’s aggression has fundamentally changed European security in ways that are still unclear as the war drags on, not least because of uncertainty over the extent to which the conflict draws Beijing closer to Moscow. Defense Department’s National Defense Strategy, which lays out the United States’ approach to long-term security challenges, was originally scheduled to come out in February it has now been delayed until further notice. Now, the shock of war has the Biden administration scrambling to rewrite its national security blueprint. The United States and its allies have not been as unified in decades, with even Germany waking up to the need to rearm. ![]() ![]() China appears to be edging closer to a bruised Russia. It’s the first all-out war of aggression in Europe since 1945. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is nearly a month old, and to call it an epochal shift already feels like a cliche.
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